A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. Search our Site: . External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. The Senate, of course, is split down the middle with Democrats in the majority by virtue of holding the tie-breaking vote in the person of Vice President Kamala Harris. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. We rated every race in play in 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. House.[5]. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . For 2022 to qualify historically as a wave election, Democrats must lose 48 U.S. House seats in 2022. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Battle for the House 2022. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. 51 +1. Philippe J. Fournier is a political columnist for . By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. Redistricting will change everything. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Search our Site: . if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["sOA7J"]={},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":443,"300":421,"400":421,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-sOA7J"),window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("sOA7J"==b)window.datawrapper["sOA7J"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Communications: Alison Graves Carley Allensworth Abigail Campbell Sarah Groat Caitlin Vanden Boom How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. You can also view these ratings as a table. Michael F.Q. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. Notice any bugs or missing polls? The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. The district runs from just . [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. Read the Analysis >. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. 49 -1. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. The Senate model is not quite as accurate, explaining about 60% of the variance in seat swing. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. Metadata. Our forecast has three versions. Apply today! November 7:Toss-up races projected. The party gained a net of nine districts. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. The figures shown are total numbers. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. Alaska. The congressional make up prior to the election was seven Democrats and . Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. All rights reserved. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. -- In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. The section below provides generic congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. By Leke Baiyewu. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . You can also view these ratingsas a table. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. that guide every prediction he makes. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. 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To candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats Representatives are allotted to the prediction line each!